Struggling to identify commercial battery value? Your tariff and project feasibility modelling could be to blame.

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Commercial battery storage is shaping up to be a major new opportunity for solar companies.  High and volatile electricity prices in the UK are driving businesses of all sizes to look for alternatives to their grid electricity supplies. Meanwhile, battery prices are falling due to battery cell production exceeding demand by 2.5 times and a host of new commercial batteries and battery optimisers have hit the market.

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And yet, while commercial and industrial solar installations are growing fast, coupling these systems with batteries remains the exception rather than the norm. Why? Well, as we hear from installers every day, it’s still difficult to make commercial battery opportunities “stack up”. To close a commercial battery deal, solar companies need to present a clear business case, backed by detailed financial modelling that demonstrates long-term project value.

But, as we outline in this blog, the issue is not due to a lack of potential value from batteries. The key impediment to commercial battery uptake is the complexity of technical and financial modelling required to demonstrate value to customers and investors.‍

To break through the complexity and help UK solar companies tap into this opportunity, Orkestra is publishing a new white paper: Commercial Battery Opportunities in the UK: A Strategic Playbook. We deployed our sophisticated feasibility modelling software to analyse 28 projects across 11,000 scenarios, exploring different tariff structures and battery functionality. The result is a clear, data-driven roadmap for unlocking the full potential of commercial battery storage.

Our key finding is that adding batteries to commercial solar installs is a huge growth opportunity for solar retailers and installers across the UK – you just need to know where to look.

The free 50-slide guide launches this month – pre-register now to be the first to access it.

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Since 2020, Orkestra has been on a mission to help solar companies unlock value in the commercial solar and battery market segment. After major success in our home market of Australia, we’ve expanded to the UK, where we launched in November 2024. And in just a few months, we’re already helping solar companies and asset financiers model projects and deliver significant energy cost savings for their customers.

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Do you want to get ahead of the competition? Start your free trial today.

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The Commercial Opportunity

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In 2024, UK commercial and industrial (C&I) solar installations almost equalled the more established residential sector in installation volume, surpassing 450 MW. This year, commercial installs are expected to exceed half a gigawatt and now could surpass the residential solar market segment. 

Adding battery storage to commercial solar can create an enhanced market opportunity for solar installers and unlock additional energy savings for their customers.

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Batteries can maximise solar self-consumption while cutting extra costs buried in tariffs. And here’s the rub – using a battery to optimise a site’s load for a site’s tariff is the key opportunity for solar companies and their customers. The challenge is that UK business electricity tariffs can be eye-wateringly complex and as a result, the value is often obscured.

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Bringing Clarity to Tariff Complexity

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Battery economics become attractive when a battery system can charge when electricity prices are low and discharge when electricity prices are high – energy arbitrage. As a general rule, we find that projects start making financial sense when a battery cycles once per day to capture an arbitrage or value opportunity worth 16p/kWh or more. But this metric, commonly referred to as the “levelised cost of storage” (LCOS), can be unhelpful as it oversimplifies the many ways that batteries create value. Value for batteries comes from a “battery value-stack” built up from electricity bill savings (and potentially other revenue streams). 

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Electricity bill savings depend on two key factors: a given site's half-hourly load profile (showing how much and when electricity is used), and the electricity tariff. To ensure financial viability, the tariff modelling required to establish bill savings must be performed with utility-grade accuracy, just as an electricity provider would. This means modelling precisely the baseline electricity bill and the post-project bill to reflect the system’s true value.

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However, modelling tariffs and bill savings at this level for commercial batteries is extremely difficult. Commercial and industrial customers will typically have partially or fully unbundled bills that can have dozens of line items. Each line item on a commercial electricity bill represents another potential battery value opportunity, so careful and detailed analysis is needed. By determining the value from each line item, a solar installer will create the battery value stack.

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Yet, we witness many solar installers opting to sidestep detailed tariff modeling by using blended electricity rates. This simplified approach calculates savings by dividing the total bill cost (excluding fixed charges) by total consumption (kWh) to determine a GBP/kWh metric. While convenient, this method fails to capture the true financial impact of a solar and battery system, potentially leaving out key value streams.

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Basic modelling methods miss out on key cost factors, including:

• Network demand tariffs
• Transmission demand tariffs
• Time-of-use pricing for both commodity and usage charges
• Opportunities for tariff optimisation

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Relying on a blended electricity rate limits financial analysis to a single arbitrage opportunity: the difference between the export tariff and the blended rate. Similar to the LCOS, this oversimplified method only looks at solar self-consumption and completely ignores how a site’s specific tariff structure can impact the overall project value.

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But with detailed feasibility modelling, you can uncover even more revenue streams, including:

• Time-of-use arbitrage across retail and distribution tariffs
• Reducing capacity market levies
• Reducing peak demand costs from distribution and transmission charges
• Capturing transmission support payments
• In some cases, optimising fixed residual charges for distribution and transmission

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Furthermore, detailed feasibility modelling also reveals that battery storage can generate value all year long. In the UK, some of the biggest tariff-based revenue streams kick in during winter, while solar savings peak in summer – a perfect pair! 

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So, rather than shying away from the complexity of commercial electricity bills, we encourage solar installers to embrace them and even work with their customers to move to suppliers that offer fully bundled bills with better opportunities for batteries.

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Inside the Guide
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The Commercial Battery Opportunities in the UK playbook takes a deep dive into the who, what, where and how of commercial battery selling to businesses of all sizes (SME and C&I). It is a practical guide to help UK solar companies to sell more battery systems to business customers – unlocking value for electricity consumers and delivering new revenue opportunities for PV installation companies. 

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The playbook sets out a number of case studies that demonstrate how a holistic approach to the financial modelling can deliver success in terms of battery system sales by revealing insights into the technology, battery value stacks, financing and tariff structures. 

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Commercial Battery Opportunities in the UK is packed with insights to help UK solar companies deliver the best results for their commercial customers, including:

• The UK commercial solar and battery market opportunity
• Extensive feasibility modeling for two commercial case studies, analysed across 14 utility regions, with various solar and battery system sizes
• A deep dive into how Time-of-Use (ToU) tariffs accurately assess feasibility and maximise project value
• Insights into how to use financing and batteries together to unlock larger commercial solar projects

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The UK commercial solar and battery market is set for big growth in 2025 – but to make the most of it, solar companies need smart, accurate modelling to uncover revenue streams and size projects for maximum financial return.

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The Orkestra platform simulates site-specific energy usage and generation, enabling solar companies to:

• Select the ideal battery size for maximum savings and revenue
• Optimise project designs to enhance financial performance
• Minimise risk by ensuring accurate feasibility assessments
• Build trust with customers by delivering transparent, data-driven insights

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With Orkestra’s advanced modelling, solar companies can tap into new revenue streams, cut through uncertainty, and stay ahead of the competition in the fast-growing UK commercial market.

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Don’t miss out! Get your free copy of Commercial Battery Opportunities in the UK: A Strategic Playbook – packed with insights, case studies, and real-world strategies to help you maximise the value of commercial solar and batteries.

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